ELECTION SPECIAL: 18 days to go poll of marginal seats shows Blair landslide

Blown away!

By Ian Kirby, Political Editor

MICHAEL Howard's Tories are heading for a crushing defeat in the general election—with Premier Tony Blair set for a landslide victory.

An exclusive poll for the News of the Worldtoday reveals the Conservatives have failed to make ANY real impact on their chosen battleground,Britain's crucial marginal seats.

The Tories have invested millions on campaigning in 130 key seats. Yet despite this blitz, our poll shows Mr Howard has scored an own goal.

The ICM poll—the most authoritative since the election race began— discloses what is really happening in those key marginals. And it's bad news for the Tories.

Over the past week ICM quizzed people who will definitely vote in 126 seats where those votes will actually matter.

Their replies show Tony Blair is on course for a massive 152-SEAT majority when the nation votes on May 5, only slightly less than his 165-seat lead in 2001.

After three weeks of campaigning, the Tories have managed to boost their share of the votes by one per cent, which would give them a gain of just EIGHT seats.

Support

Today's results show that while many people may hate Tony Blair's performance, most still plan to vote for him again. In seats where the Tories came a close second to Labour MPs in 2001, Mr Howard's team have so far won over a few hundred voters.

Just 4 per cent of Labour supporters are planning to change their vote this time and they are turning to the Lib Dems, not the Tories.

In those seats, the Tories have actually lost 2 per cent of their support, giving them a net swing of just 1 per cent. This would gain them four seats from Labour. In seats where the fight is between Tories and Lib Dems, it's Labour who are winning over voters.

Here there is also an overall 1 per cent swing to the Conservatives at this stage of the campaign. But again, their support base has shrunk by 2 per cent. The Lib Dems have dropped 4 per cent. Labour have gained 5 per cent.

Our findings suggest too few voters are changing their minds to overturn even the slimmest of Labour majorities, but the Tories would win another four Lib Dem seats.

Last week the News of the World held the first joint interview by Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown for a decade. Our poll suggests they have persuaded voters they will continue in tandem if they win the election.

A majority of 54 per cent say the pair will be able to work together.

ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone between April 12 and 14, 2005. Interviews were conducted in the 93 most marginal Labour-held constituencies where the Conservatives came second.

ICM also conducted 1,004 interviews in the 33 most marginal Conservative/Liberal marginals (held by either party). Data were weighted to the profile of all adults in each of these two constituency types. 
Focus on hot seats

FORGET every other opinion poll you read during the general election campaign.

Today's News of the World poll is the only one to tell you what is really going on.

In a close contest, the 126 marginal seats polled by ICM will decide who runs Britain from May 6.

Voters there don't know what the Labour Party policy on Iraq is. They could not give a monkey's about the Tories' tax plan.

But they care about their local schools and hospitals, asylum seekers and criminals on their streets.

And almost a quarter of voters (23 per cent) who plan to go to the polling booths on May 5 say they could still change their minds on where their cross goes.

Throw in the political body-blow caused by the collapse of MG Rover in the Midlands —where all three main parties are fighting for 15 marginal seats—and it could be a close-run thing.

The Tories need to stay disciplined and keep plugging away but they also need to pull a massive rabbit out of the hat.

Their election leader, co-chairman Dr Liam Fox, has badly miscalculated and run an amateurish campaign.

Instead of hunting down individual voters using computer programmes, they should have pulverised Labour with big, brash promises.

Forget these cautious, meticulously costed tax plans.

They need to stop pretending they are in power and understand that will never happen until people remember they used to be proud to be Tory.
 

School in class of its own

 
Lesson to us all

By Chris Buckland

IMAGINE a school where all the children are polite.Where there is no running in the corridors. Where silence is golden.

Where the boys and girls are keen to learn, forming a long queue AFTER lessons to use the library.

A school that is an example of how our childrenSHOULD be educated in Britain, rather than in the "bog standard" academies of mediocrity—where learning takes a back seat in a losing battle to keep control of the class.

Nervous

Where is this school? Eton? Cheltenham Ladies College? No, the Perfect School is in one of the poorest parts of east London.

Three-quarters of the pupils qualify for free school meals. And for 70 per cent English is their second language.

The Sir John Cass Redcoat school in Stepney should be a riot...literally. So I spent a day in class more nervous than I was when my mum first took me to Rosehill Primary 55 years ago.

I needn't have worried. While almost 1.5 million secondary school kids are missing out on a decent education, I saw children being raised up rather than dragged down.

For the last three years the Sir John Cass has topped the "most improved school" table drawn up by inspectors. Yet 10 years ago, when the current head arrived, only EIGHT per cent of students gained five GCSE passes at A*-C. Now it's an incredible 87 PER CENT. Well above the national average of 57 per cent.

You can tell it's a good school from the moment you walk through the door. But this isn't just good—it'sAMAZING.

So who is the miracle worker who has turned an ordinary-looking inner-city school into a centre of learning? The sort of centre that would transform Britain into a nation of well-educated, decent citizens—if his leadership was imposed on ALL our schools? Step forward wiry, 57-year-old Welshman Hayden Evans, above. When he arrived there were only 40 applications for the 180 places available. This year there were 840.

Says Mr Evans: "We pick up on small things like running in the corridor. You sort out the minor things and the more serious things might never happen.

"That's the very simple logic of it. Zero tolerance.

"That's exactly what we use. We're not a totalitarian regime but they've got to know that intimidating classmates is unacceptable."

Smiling

But the greatest example to those schools turning out tomorrow's criminals, druggies and down-and-outs is the way the Sir John Cass emphasises self-motivation and independent learning

The head sums up a philosophy that should be put up in lights outside the Education Department. "One of the pleasures I have is watching all the children go home at night happy and smiling. I find it inspiring and it makes me work harder."

And you come away knowing that success is all down to leadership—whether it's a hospital, a police force or a school.

Or, come to that, a country.

Meanwhile down the road

A QUICK trip across the Thames is all it takes to see the other face of education.

Welcome to the all-girl Waverley School in Peckham, where only fools and horses would want to send their kids. At least that's what one mother said, adding: "My 12-year-old hates it." Here the number passing five GCSEs is 30 per cent—barely a third of the Sir John Cass pass rate.It is making some improvement with rates up from 23 per cent four years ago. But sadly headteacher Lesley Day didn't want to talk about her plans and dreams. She was more anxious about us taking pictures of the school and its logo.

"I shall complain if you use them," she said. Pity that's all she had to say about her school.

Голая королева Англии ( Кейт Миддлтон) на пляже.

На обложке французского глянцевого журнала Closer от 15 августа  красуется голая супруга наследного принца герцогиня Кембриджская Кейт Миддлтон и ее муж принц Уильям.
Интересно с какого расстояния они снимали эти фото.

После судебного вердикта журнал заставили выплатить крупную сумму штрафа за вмешательство в личную жизнь.
Хотя по нашему мнению ничего предосудительного в этих фотографиях нет.